Suppose we assume that there is a certain set of toss-up states in which the outcome -- from a probablistic point of view -- is essentially a coin toss. What then is the probability that Kerry will win the necessary 270 electoral votes?
For example, let's assume the scenario indicated in the map below, which seems quite reasonable to me. In it, Kerry has 252 EVs locked up and hence needs to capture 18 more from among the following states, which we consider toss-ups:
OH (20) FL (27) IA (7) AR (6) NM (5) NV (5)
Kerry gains the necessary 18 EVs in 51 of the 64 possible outcomes, for a probability of approximately 80%.
If we include WI among the toss-up states, the probability that Kerry gains the necessary 28 EVs is approximately 73%.
If we include WI and NH among the toss-up states, the probability that Kerry gains the necessary 32 EVs is approximately 70%.
Does this mean that the smart money is on Kerry? I think so.
For what it's worth... (which is probably nothing). :^)